
FY25F Outlook Lifted on Trade Outperformance
FY25F Outlook Lifted on Trade Outperformance
September trade figures defied expectations, despite being the first full month under the new tariff scheme. Exports soared 24.7% y/y and imports rose 24.9% y/y, far exceeding forecasts of 5.9% and 8.7%, respectively. YTD export momentum from the US and inflows from China remained robust, with m/m momentum showing signs of recovery from August’s decline. October growth is set to moderate (exports up 12.5%, imports up 12.8% y/y), yet FY25F forecasts are upgraded to 14.2% and 16.2%, reflecting stronger-thanexpected YTD performance, competitive tariff positioning, stable new export orders, and robust US core durable goods demand.