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Research Insights

Strategy Reports

Biannual Strategy: Flexing the Bamboo

Biannual Strategy: Flexing the Bamboo

Vietnam was particularly exposed to initial US tariffs. It needs to show all of its core traits of resilience, cultural togetherness, bravery and shrewd negotiation to improve its position. One suspects that the bamboo of its famous diplomacy will be flexed to almost breaking point between the needs of the US and China. We forecast an average tariff rate of 23.4% following negotiations, affording a GDP growth of 6.5% this year and 6.2% in 2026. This will likely be the best in Asia. Our new one-year index target is 1,512 with good stock picking opportunities. Indeed, the potential for better-than-expected tariff negotiations and a September FTSE Russell EM upgrade could lead to euphoria beyond that level.

Macro & Market Insights

FY25F Outlook Lifted on Trade Outperformance

FY25F Outlook Lifted on Trade Outperformance

September trade figures defied expectations, despite being the first full month under the new tariff scheme. Exports soared 24.7% y/y and imports rose 24.9% y/y, far exceeding forecasts of 5.9% and 8.7%, respectively. YTD export momentum from the US and inflows from China remained robust, with m/m momentum showing signs of recovery from August’s decline. October growth is set to moderate (exports up 12.5%, imports up 12.8% y/y), yet FY25F forecasts are upgraded to 14.2% and 16.2%, reflecting stronger-thanexpected YTD performance, competitive tariff positioning, stable new export orders, and robust US core durable goods demand.

CB Buybacks Hits Record High in 3Q25 as Issuance Slows

CB Buybacks Hits Record High in 3Q25 as Issuance Slows

The corporate bond market stabilized in September following strong prior gains, with total outstanding value stable at VND1,411tn (up 8% y/y and 7% YTD), equivalent to 10.7% of 2025 GDP. 3Q issuance softened 5% y/y to VND152.4tn, while buybacks hit a record VND108tn (up 53% y/y) on active balance sheet management by major banks. Meanwhile, maturity pressure eased 27% m/m temporarily in Sep (VND19tn) but is set to rebound in 4Q25 (VND55tn forecast), raising near-term refinancing risks. Secondary market ADTV soared 45% m/m to a record VND7.5tn in September

Sector Insights

Utilities - Electricity: Vietnam’s Power Sector at a Turning Point

Utilities - Electricity: Vietnam’s Power Sector at a Turning Point

Vietnam’s power sector looks to be at a turning point, with the government’s ‘Resolution 70’ prioritizing energy security and private participation. Revisions re. decrees and new tariff structures aim to ease bottlenecks, improve project bankability, and align with PDP8. Implementation delays persist across energy generation & transmission projects, but reforms are underway to unlock capital and attract private players. Our covered names are well placed to benefit here, helped by stronger EPC execution (PC1), higher Qc alloc’s (POW / PGV), and on-track renewable expansions (GEG / REE). Our top pick remains PC1 (Add) on its EPC leadership, grid exposure, and medium-term growth pipeline; GEG and POW are also preferred at current levels.

Industrial Parks: Tariff Fears on the Wane; Interest Likely to Rise

Industrial Parks: Tariff Fears on the Wane; Interest Likely to Rise

As tariff-related uncertainty eases, industrial park developers under our coverage have seen client interest rebound in 3Q25; we expect this to continue, Key IP catalysts ahead include continued government support through legal reforms, expanding infrastructure investment, and greater administrative efficiency. Planned provincial mergers may temporarily delay new project approvals, but the government’s supportive stance toward approvals should help to gradually alleviate supply constraints. We favor SIP, KBC, and IDC for their strong fundamentals and proven track record in serving FDI clients. These companies are well-positioned to capture opportunities from the ongoing expansion of Southern Vietnam’s infrastructure

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