Research Insights

FY25F Outlook Lifted on Trade Outperformance

September trade figures defied expectations, despite being the first full month under the new tariff scheme. Exports soared 24.7% y/y and imports rose 24.9% y/y, far exceeding forecasts of 5.9% and 8.7%, respectively. YTD export momentum from the US and inflows from China remained robust, with m/m momentum showing signs of recovery from August’s decline. October growth is set to moderate (exports up 12.5%, imports up 12.8% y/y), yet FY25F forecasts are upgraded to 14.2% and 16.2%, reflecting stronger-thanexpected YTD performance, competitive tariff positioning, stable new export orders, and robust US core durable goods demand.